By Anonymous Writer
North Korea has been a subject of wonder, mostly in the most perplexing and inconvenient ways possible. That is not only because it is one of the most isolated placed on earth but also because the little it exhibits to the outer world lacks logical coherence. The communist pariah, in the views of those outside its walls, is characterized by duplicity.
The duplicity can be described as North Korea’s dual application of armed provocation and gradually apparent political will to unlock its doors to the outer world. However, its economy seems to be steadily deteriorating. Steven Bosworth, the last high-profile US visitor to the North, said “A labyrinth of issues like power transition and currency reform failure is alarming the North Korean leadership that North Korea simply cannot continue like this.”1
In fact, North Korea had been intensifying efforts for economic growth and constructive diplomacy up until the first quarter of 2010. There was hope for the return of North Korea to the 6-party talk in the aftermath of North Korean foreign policy master Kim Gye Kwan’s recent visit to Beijing. Also, North Korea did play a proactive role in re-normalizing the Geumkangsan tourism enterprise and the operation of Kaeseong Industrial Complex.2 North Korea has also allowed Russia 50 years of ship-docking at the piers of Najin (a coastal city located in northwest North Korea) and is actively reviewing the extension of Chinese port usage at the same location for the next 10 years.3
However, these signs of goodwill have been offset by armed provocations towards the end of the first quarter of 2010, along with the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan. The tension on the halved peninsula, many experts and policy workers say, has never been so high. Some even say that an all-out conventional war is possible, which is unusual to hear outside of North Korea. The South’s accusations and threats of sanctions have provoked more inflammable responses from the North.
What makes North Korea so difficult to pacify?
Superficial analyses would suggest that the North’s provocations are aimed at gaining leverage in future negotiations or at renewing the regime’s grip on internal affairs. But given the integral role the current economic plight is playing in shaping North Korean behavior, it is fair to conclude that armed provocation could carry with it a commercial message. Armed provocations have a few commercially important implications in the black market for arms sales.
North Korea’s cash flow has dried up due to UN sanctions. In dire straits, the North is under tremendous economic pressure that could compel it to marshal all of its resources in raking in much needed dollars to provide a stepping stone for growth.4 Armed provocations are an effective propaganda instrument to advertise North Korea’s military products. Because armed provocations are able to draw a great deal of media attention, demonstrations of North Korea’s capabilities are widely broadcast. To the general public, this is news. To potential buyers – usually rogue states – this is advertising.
This possibility deserves special attention when taking into account that the arms industry claims a lion’s share of North Korea’s production. According to a report by the Congressional Research Service, some 36% of North Korea’s economy, at least until 2003, was based in manufacturing, mining, and construction, all of which are closely related to the military.5 The strategy is to provoke its neighbors, make the headlines, and thereby stimulate the demand in the world black market for arms sales. The interdiction of North Korean arms exports last December in Thailand could be an example of propaganda generated by armed North Korean provocations over the past several years.
Another thing armed provocation implicitly expresses is the quality of North Korea’s human resources in the military industry. A similar example could be found in Pakistan, another nuclear-armed country, whose well-known nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, exported nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea. This example should be a warning to the world because it means that North Korea is also capable of exporting weapons technology, the same way Khan did. In fact, North Korea may already have been involved in such occasions. In 2007 Israel provided evidence that Syria and North Korea mounted a joint venture in the construction of a nuclear facility.6 Furthermore, it has also been found that North Korea provided “45 tons of uranium to Syria in September 2007 for the production of fuel for an undeclared nuclear reactor.”7
The worsening economy in North Korea is leading to further proliferation around the world. North Korea, I anticipate, will make more provocations to display its capabilities to the world for various purposes. The main purpose to such provocations will be to advertise its military products and technology. This should not allow North Korea’s neighbors to lower their guard and feel complacent. In fact, stakes are high for the world in converting North Korea from an impoverished outcast to a self-reliant economy. However, a modification of North Korean behavior is required. Economic and other humanitarian support can come only when balance-of-power is secure in the region because when the balance-of-power is thwarted, war makes any sort of aid meaningless. Life is the highest freedom of all because without it no other freedom can be enjoyed.
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