The Iraq Conundrum Is Not Over

By Joon Suh

“Sovereignty” seems to be the buzzword in the world’s currently most troubled country. After six years of national security life-support from the United States, Iraqis made the audacious attempt to seize the opportunity of self-determination, finally reclaiming the role of policing its own streets. Regaining sovereignty was followed by a nationwide festivity, marked by a new holiday, National Sovereignty Day.

Reclaiming its own streets is, without doubt, a great achievement for Iraq—certainly worthy of commemoration. However, it does not provide a solution to all of the conundrums that have so far obstructed Iraq from statehood. In fact, it generates new ones, and they are challenges that necessitate an orchestra of diplomatic goodwill from within the Middle East and outside the Middle East—with a special emphasis on the former.

Iraq’s sovereignty conundrum stems from the turmoil in its northern region. At a glance of the word “northern region,” many are inclined to envisage the urban combat in Mosul, which has received the lion’s share of global media attention as Iraq’s most violent city. However, in Iraq, where ethnic identity constitutes the core of virtually all social relationships, the first problem relevant to sovereignty rises along borders separating the Kurdish ethnic sect from the rest of Iraq.

Although the Kurds have persistently moved to escalate the status of their region to full-fledged statehood, its defiance of the Iraqi authority has escalated recently as Kurdish heavyweights are pushing forward Kurdistan’s own constitution. The fact that a referendum on the constitution was scheduled strongly suggests that Kurdistan’s relationship with Baghdad is worsening.
For Iraq, this is a potent and grave threat to its national sovereignty. It is a threat because territorial integrity is being jeopardized by an active and organized secessionist movement within defined territory; more so for the reason that it places Iraq in a thorny seat at the table with Turkey, which will immensely influence Iraq’s short- and long-term future.

That is because Kurdish secession and the simultaneous claim of Kurdish statehood is a national security threat to Turkey. The Kurdish nation is largely divided by the border that lies between Turkey and Iraq. An independent Kurdistan not only provides safe haven for secessionist groups like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) but also creates a state actor whose interest is to reconstruct the Kurdish nation that stretches over two state territories. Turkey has always been interested in preventing the erection of a Kurdish state, which explains its incursion into northern Iraq in 2008, an act for which it was reprimanded by the United States.

Today, Turkey possesses more sway than ever over matters in the region, and this has profound implications for Iraq. Turkey is highly likely to have significant sway over Iraq’s human security—a new dimension of national security that concerns securing resources and infrastructures vital to the humanitarian needs of a country. For instance, while the Euphrates is drying up with cleft river beds being revealed, Turkey and Syria control the hydro supply in Euphrates’ upstream region where they have eight dams in total. The part of Euphrates that bleeds out from Turkey is the most northern part of the river. This means that the control panel for the hydro supply via Euphrates rests in Turkey, which would make Syria partially vulnerable, and Iraq significantly vulnerable to Turkey’s influence over the river.

The drought works immensely to the detriment of Iraq. Rice farmers along the river are no longer able to harvest due to the drought which leads to more imports of grain. This is a classic example of hydro security’s domino effect. Havoc in hydro security is being wreaked on food security and it could also damage public health security in many of the urban centers that rely on the Euphrates for water because water is central to public health and sanitation. Hydro security is vital for survival.

Turkey is also a strategic foothold of high importance to Iraq. It is a logistics stronghold, a gateway for strategic and humanitarian supplies into Iraq. During the time of the US occupation, 70-80% of US supply was transported via Turkey. It is a serious foreign policy conundrum for Iraq to come to terms with Turkey in maintaining a safe corridor for aid supply.

Aside from Turkey, another country that Iraq must establish rapport with is Syria, and this could, in fact, be one of the greatest challenges that Iraq will face in diplomacy. Syria’s affiliation to Iran puts the United States at odds with Syria. Iraq, still a client of the United States and the beneficiary of its assistance, will face grave difficulty in weighing the Iraq-US relationship and the Iraq-Syria relationship.

Often, adolescents crave adulthood, a status of independence and liberty. However, they seldom have a complete understanding of the gravity that adulthood levies upon their shoulders. Today, Iraq is an adolescent seeking adulthood, and it may appear that it has reached adulthood. However, adulthood creates new problems and much heavier responsibilities. This infant democracy needs all the support that its patron state, the United States, can afford. However, it should keep in mind that its survival in the “jungle” should not come at the expense of good relations with its neighbors.

Welcome, Iraq, to the jungle.